Former Prime Minister
Raila Odinga arrived back home to a hero’s welcome after a short stint in the
United States a few months ago. He came breathing fire, promising nothing short
of a revolution in a series of rallies that was to culminate in a major rally
on the 7th of July. The rally was to be held the same calendar day
as the one in 1990 when political agitators met in a Nairobi park demanding the
end to the one party system. That rally in 1990 ended in violence and running
battles between activists and the state police.
Raila in a frenetic build up to this July rally, intimated that we were
on the cusp of a new beginning to be brought about by non- too-timid means that
would make Tahrir square look like a stroll along the sandy beaches of Mombasa
(although that too is becoming quite hazardous).
Well the day of reckoning
for the regime turned out to be as placid and tranquil as a wedding in which
the full bride price has been paid and there are no dissenters waiting in the
wings. Attendance was dismal and Raila
had to endure the added humiliation of a total blackout by the Kenyan media. An
embarrassment akin to that of a coy maiden who shrieks out in horror after
being felt up by the drunken uncle at the family reunion.
As things turned out, it
was both a letdown and a relief. It was a letdown in the sense that his
supporters expected a revolution on a grand scale but were instead treated to a
declaration rife with platitudes and short on substance. It was a relief
because if his supporters (whose proclivity for violence makes English soccer
hooligans look like kids playing in the sand box) had been sent forth to
revolt, there would have been immeasurable damage to both life and property.
A few weeks down the line
and calm and serenity abounds even as the July chill permeates our bones and
rewards sellers of hot beverages, blankets and jackets with a boon that will
have them gorging on the fat for the rest of the year.
As it stands, we have 3
years to the next General Elections. Being a renowned master of political
stratagem, I offer the following advice to Raila Odinga as regards his political
future. First a prediction. If he were to be the flag bearer for his CORD
coalition in the forthcoming Presidential race, he will be thoroughly beaten if
his main rival is the incumbent, President Uhuru Kenyatta. Why? The President
has the state machinery to use nefariously if he is so inclined to. Such
iniquitous acts would include but would not be limited to: persuasion
(intimidation), reciprocal agreements (vote buying) and aggrandizement of data
(rigging). But he would have no need for
such antics as the President and his Deputy both enjoy rabid support in their
respective strongholds and are making inroads into Raila territory whereas
Raila has all but given up on ever getting an inkling of support in the Central
and Rift Valley regions.
My advice to Raila is for
him to exit center stage and assume the role of puppet master. Cede leadership
to the younger generation of leaders. Become the coach of the winning team and
you will still get to bask in the limelight of victory. The CORD ticket should
be youthful, devoid of the old guard. Embrace the wing of upstarts who
threatened to overthrow you and sent you scampering to the United States at the
ill fated ODM elections. They are the
representation of the youth and would gather just as much support as yourself, and
maybe more if you were to endorse them.
In the next article, I
will attempt to put together a winning combination of possible presidential aspirants
from the CORD coalition but I can definitely state with utmost assurance that
any ticket with Raila, Kalonzo, Wetangula or any other recycled has-been will
face eminent defeat at the polls.
In an article down the
line, I will try to ascertain the possibility of an Uhuru re-election. All is
not rosy for the incumbent given the myriad of problems we are experiencing. I
have been gauging the mood on the ground and will be reporting later with my
findings.
Be well my readers. Do
not fret nor moan for happier days are ahead of us.
